Anthropic reportedly has to expect a lower valuation for its IPO
After the slump in chip stocks, $1.2tn to $1.3tn is being discussed. Expectations are also falling on Polymarket.
Read the reportWhat is happening in AI, which lab is ahead, and which dates matter next. Times in CET.
Next date9 d 15 h 2 minNvidia quarterly results, Tuesday, 17 November 2026, 23:00 CETNvidia quarterly results, Tuesday, 17 November 2026, 23:00 CETSettlement of the November market for the best model, 30 November 2026, 24:00 CETStart of NeurIPS in Sydney, Sunday, 6 December 2026Settlement of the year market for the best model, 31 December 2026, 24:00 CET
Trend from the reports
Who is ahead for first place. For each market and source the latest value from the reports counts; for each lab the trend is the median.
Probabilities from bets, not results and not statements by the companies.
Best model at the end of the month
Google ahead
- Google74 %
- Anthropic24 %
- OpenAI4.1 %
1 sources
Latest value from the report of
Best model at the end of the year
Google ahead
- Google62 %
- Anthropic31.2 %
- OpenAI5.3 %
2 sources
Latest value from the report of
Best agent
Anthropic ahead
- Anthropic84 %
- OpenAI8.5 %
- Google8.3 %
1 sources
Latest value from the report of
Guide
- DatesWhat is coming up in AI in the next few weeks, with dates in German time.
- ModelsWhich lab holds No. 1 in the Text Arena and what the prediction markets expect.
- Labs & moneyValuations, revenue, and IPO plans of the large AI labs.
- RegulationWhat legislators and authorities in the EU, in China, and in the USA decide on AI.
- Sources and how to read themWhere the figures come from and how to read probabilities.
More reports
- Kalshi now clearly sees Google ahead of Anthropic for the best model at the end of the year. The price for Gemini has risen since the morning from about 47 to 59.9 percent. Polymarket remains almost unchanged.
- AWS brings bots with their own memory to the Kiro Crew development environment. Each bot is a named, long-running agent with its own notes, its own permissions and parallel sessions.
- Polymarket sees Anthropic at 84 percent for the best agent at the end of November. OpenAI and Google each stand at just over 8 percent in this market. Kalshi sees the end of the year for the best model as closer than Polymarket does.
- Anthropic reportedly plans to start its roadshow next week. Traders on Polymarket now see a first trading day by 20 November at only 49 percent.
- Crusoe sells unfinished data center project in Wyoming to Google. The purchase price is not known. Google plans to invest $17bn in the site.
- China accepts comments on export controls for frontier AI until 15 November. The draft covers model weights, agents, and training data. A registration before export already applies.
- Markets see Google ahead for No. 1, Anthropic for the best agent. Polymarket gives Google 74 percent for the end of November and 64 percent for the end of the year. In the agent market Anthropic leads with 57 percent.
- US Department of Justice creates task force against misuse of advanced AI. It is to prosecute foreign states, criminals, and companies. The existing division for AI cases is merged into it.
- OpenAI has reportedly raised $11bn at a $1.25tn valuation. On the same day, Business Insider reports on a $5bn round for Thinking Machines.
- Chip stocks slump, Nasdaq 100 loses 6.4 percent. According to CNBC, Nvidia and Qualcomm each fall more than 9 percent. The semiconductor index loses 12 percent.
- Traders expect Anthropic's market debut most likely in the week from 16 November. Polymarket prices give about 55 percent for the window from 16 to 20 November. Anthropic itself names no date.
- Google ends Anthropic's run at the top of the Text Arena. In the Polymarket October market, Google stands at 100 percent. Anthropic had previously been ahead for eight months.
- Google presents Gemini 4 Carbon, at first only for cyber defenders. The model follows two weeks after Gemini 4 Argon. Google does not name a date for broad access.
- Anthropic makes IPO prospectus public and reports $16.3bn in half-year revenue. The prospectus shows a $80.7bn net loss in the first half of 2026. The ticker on the Nasdaq is to be ANT.
- OpenAI releases GPT-6.1 Terra for controlling computers. According to OpenAI, the model costs half as much as GPT-6.1 Sol and is said to be more than three times as fast.