English
Tachyrion

The weeks at a glance

The slider is set to the latest day. Moving it back shows what happened on the days before.

Next date9 d 15 h 2 minNvidia quarterly results, Tuesday, 17 November 2026, 23:00 CET

Sat, Nov 7today

As of today: Polymarket sees Google ahead with 74 percent for the end of November and with 64 percent for the end of the year.

In the market for the best agent, Anthropic leads with 84 percent.

OpenAIAnthropicGoogleMetaMistralNvidiaMicrosoftAppleThinking MachinesFalUSA

Dark means: has made headlines up to this day. Outlined means: on this day. Bold means: lab at the top of the rankings.

Forecasts

74%Google, favorite for the end of November
8 of 10months of 2026 went to Anthropic
OctoberGoogle takes the top spot
4.1%OpenAI

Chance of first place in the Text Arena on 30 November 2026. Bets on Polymarket, as of 6 November 2026.

GooglePolymarket, 6 Nov
74 %
AnthropicPolymarket, 6 Nov
24 %
OpenAIPolymarket, 6 Nov
4.1 %
MetaPolymarket, 6 Nov
0.4 %
SpaceXAIPolymarket, 6 Nov
0.3 %
Z.aiPolymarket, 6 Nov
0.2 %
DeepSeekPolymarket, 6 Nov
0.1 %

Kalshi prices a contract on Gemini 4 Carbon (High) at about 80 cents. A chance below 30 percent does not mean impossible: Anthropic was ahead for eight months, from February to September.

Month calculator

Who was in first place in the Text Arena at the end of the month? Ten months are decided, two are open. Set G, A, O, or a question mark to play through the year.

Google 2Anthropic 8OpenAI 0open 2

End of year open. Anthropic is certain to have the most months (8).

NovemberSettlement on 30 November. Gemini 4 Carbon against Claude and GPT-6.Polymarket: Google 74%, Anthropic 24%
DecemberSettlement on 31 December. Also decides the year market.Polymarket: Year market: Google 64%, Anthropic 31%

The basis is the Polymarket monthly markets. They settle on first place in the overall Text Arena ranking at the end of the month. January and October went to Google, February to September to Anthropic. For October the last price was 100 percent for Google; an official settlement is not confirmed here. The December standing also decides the year market.