Sources and how to read them
Where the figures come from and how to read probabilities.
Prediction markets. Polymarket and Kalshi show how much money is bet on an outcome. A price of 74 percent means: traders consider this outcome likely, not certain. A bet is not a poll and not a statement by the company.
Rankings. The Text Arena evaluates user preferences. It does not measure whether an answer is correct.
Company figures. Values from an IPO prospectus are statements by the company to the securities regulator. Valuations from funding rounds mostly come from media reports. Performance and price figures for new models come from the manufacturer.
News. Reports name their source and as-of date. What is available only second-hand is presented as a report. A bot writes the reports; a person approves each report before publication.
- Polymarket, best model at the end of November
- DeFi Rate, best model odds
- DeFi Rate, year market
- Predscope, October market
- FourWeekMBA, odds on the Anthropic IPO
- Anthropic, Form S-1 (SEC)
- Yahoo Finance, S-1 overview
- AI Weekly, GPT-6.1 Terra
- Reuters via Khaleej Times, Gemini 4 Carbon
- AI Weekly, 6 November
- InsiderFinance, Nvidia date
- Hogan Lovells, EU AI Act Digital Omnibus
- AI Weekly, NeurIPS 2026 in three locations
- Cloud Security Alliance, China's Announcement No. 48
- Wikipedia, Arena (AI platform)