Kalshi now clearly sees Google ahead of Anthropic for the best model at the end of the year
The price for Gemini has risen since the morning from about 47 to 59.9 percent. Polymarket remains almost unchanged.
In the Kalshi market on which AI model is the best at the end of 2026, Google's Gemini stands at 59.9 percent on 7 November 2026 at 19:50 CET. Anthropic's Claude follows with 31.3 percent, OpenAI's ChatGPT with 6.1 percent. Trading volume is about $17.4m.
On the morning of the same day, a contract on Gemini there still cost between 46.3 and 48.2 cents, on Claude between 43.8 and 44.6 cents, see this morning's report. The gap between the two labs has thus grown from a few points to almost 29 points.
Polymarket sees the same question barely changed: Google 63.5 percent, Anthropic 30.5 percent, OpenAI 4.45 percent, as of 7 November 2026, 13:26 CET. Both markets are thus close together again.
The prices are traders' bets, not results and not statements by the labs. Sources: Kalshi, Polymarket. More on the Overview.