Models
Which lab holds No. 1 in the Text Arena and what the prediction markets expect.
The Text Arena is a public ranking. People ask two anonymous models the same question and choose the better answer. A score emerges from many such comparisons. The overall ranking measures which answers users prefer. It is not a test of facts, programming performance, or safety.
Polymarket offers a market every month: which company has the No. 1 model at the end of the month? From February to September 2026 Anthropic was ahead there, in January and in October Google. In early October Gemini 4 Argon reportedly took the top spot. On 28 October Gemini 4 Carbon followed, so far only for selected cyber defenders.
On 26 October OpenAI released GPT-6.1 Terra, a model for controlling computers. OpenAI says it is half the price of GPT-6.1 Sol and more than three times as fast. These figures are the manufacturer's statements.
A market value is a bet. At 74 percent the favorite is wrong about one time in four. A new model can turn the top spot within a few days.
Chance of first place in the Text Arena on 30 November 2026. Bets on Polymarket, as of 6 November 2026.
Kalshi prices a contract on Gemini 4 Carbon (High) at about 80 cents. A chance below 30 percent does not mean impossible: Anthropic was ahead for eight months, from February to September.
Who was ahead when?
| Period | First place at the end of the month | Duration |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | GoogleGoogle | 1 month |
| February to September 2026 | AnthropicAnthropic, longest run of the year | 8 months |
| October 2026 | GoogleGoogle, after Gemini 4 Argon in early October | 1 month |
| November and December 2026 | openThe markets see Google ahead | – |
The top spot usually changes with a major model launch. Whoever leads the Text Arena does not have to lead in programming or with agents.
End of year open. Anthropic is certain to have the most months (8).
The basis is the Polymarket monthly markets. They settle on first place in the overall Text Arena ranking at the end of the month. January and October went to Google, February to September to Anthropic. For October the last price was 100 percent for Google; an official settlement is not confirmed here. The December standing also decides the year market.